Lebanon: Rolling with the punches

New Country Views


Rolling with the punches

  • Lebanese protesters are threatening the government over the state of the economy. Our baseline is that the government may resign, leading to another power vacuum. While the country is no stranger to political vacuums, repercussions on economic and social policy are not to be discounted.
  • While the historical reform track record remains mixed, even partial reform implementation could support the disbursement of some donor funds, especially within the context of stabilising the country.
  • Local security developments will continue to subdue the real economy. Tourism is robust, but insufficient to compensate for a deteriorating fiscal position.

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